{ "meta": { "title": "AI Financing Map", "snapshot": "late October 2026", "description": "Directional money flows between chip suppliers, hyperscalers, neoclouds, frontier labs, investors, lenders and developers. From = outflow, To = inflow. Amounts are $bn unless a quantity is given.", "warning": "Do NOT sum all rows into a single total. Filter Is_Aggregate=No and Is_Component=No for company sums, filter Status before summing (Closed vs Committed vs Contingent vs LOI are different stages), and never add a lab's equity to that lab's cloud commitments to the same supplier - the same dollar circulates.", "source": "Derived from the AI financing research report (36 relationships) and its spreadsheet dataset. Full source URLs are in the library markdown report.", "counts": { "links": 87, "nodes": 60, "non_aggregate_links": 73 } }, "nodes": [ { "id": "OpenAI", "type": "Lab", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 629.4, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 253.35, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 882.75 }, { "id": "Anthropic", "type": "Lab", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 269.4, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 93.8, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 363.2 }, { "id": "Oracle", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 40.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 318.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 358.0 }, { "id": "Microsoft Azure", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": "Microsoft", "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 294.9, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 294.9 }, { "id": "Nvidia", "type": "Chip", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 155.3, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 40.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 195.3 }, { "id": "Amazon Web Services", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": "Amazon", "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 148.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 148.0 }, { "id": "Google Cloud", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": "Alphabet / Google", "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 114.5, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 114.5 }, { "id": "CoreWeave", "type": "Neocloud", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.35, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 89.5, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 89.85 }, { "id": "Amazon", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 83.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 83.0 }, { "id": "SoftBank", "type": "Investor", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 79.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 79.0 }, { "id": "Nebius", "type": "Neocloud", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 55.26, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 55.26 }, { "id": "Meta", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 51.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 51.0 }, { "id": "Stargate JV", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 45.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 45.0 }, { "id": "Google", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 43.3, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 43.3 }, { "id": "Bank group (JPMorgan, MUFG et al.)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 38.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 38.0 }, { "id": "Vantage Data Centers (for Oracle lease)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 38.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 38.0 }, { "id": "Microsoft", "type": "Hyperscaler", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 35.4, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 35.4 }, { "id": "Bond investors", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 25.2, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 25.2 }, { "id": "xAI SPV", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 20.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 20.0 }, { "id": "Apollo / Diameter et al.", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 12.5, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 12.5 }, { "id": "Lenders", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 10.8, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 10.8 }, { "id": "xAI", "type": "Lab", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 10.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 10.0 }, { "id": "JPMorgan", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 9.6, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 9.6 }, { "id": "Abilene Stargate site (Crusoe)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 9.6, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 9.6 }, { "id": "Blackstone Credit & Insurance-anchored lenders", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 8.5, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 8.5 }, { "id": "Blackstone / Magnetar-led lenders", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 7.5, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 7.5 }, { "id": "Valor-led equity investors", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 7.5, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 7.5 }, { "id": "Oracle / MGX", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 7.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 7.0 }, { "id": "Public investors", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 6.66, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 6.66 }, { "id": "Thrive / SoftBank / Dragoneer / MGX / T. Rowe Price", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 6.6, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 6.6 }, { "id": "OpenAI employees (secondary sellers)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 6.6, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 6.6 }, { "id": "Crusoe / Blue Owl", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Abilene Stargate site", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Morgan Stanley-arranged lenders", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Strategic investors (incl. SpaceX $2bn)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Intel", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Blackstone", "type": "Lender", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Blackstone-Google JV (compute-as-a-service)", "type": "Other", "parent": "Blackstone", "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 5.0 }, { "id": "Morgan Stanley / Barclays / Citi / Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan", "type": "Lender", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 2.5, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 2.5 }, { "id": "Lenders (private credit)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 2.3, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 2.3 }, { "id": "Accel / Nvidia / Orbis", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.7, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.7 }, { "id": "SoftBank + Nvidia + Amazon (syndicate)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "SoftBank-led syndicate", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "AMD", "type": "Chip", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "OpenAI / Broadcom", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Each other", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "SoftBank / OpenAI / Oracle / MGX (Stargate JV)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Stargate data centres (US)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Lightspeed-led syndicate", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "ICONIQ-led syndicate", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "GIC / Coatue-led syndicate", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Altimeter / Dragoneer / Greenoaks / Sequoia-led syndicate", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Lenders / bondholders (all)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Valor / Vy / a16z / Sequoia / Fidelity / Kingdom Holding et al.", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Nvidia / AMD / MGX / QIA / BlackRock / Fidelity / Sequoia / Valor et al.", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "Valor / Apollo / Diameter / Nvidia et al. (via SPV)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "xAI (via SPV lease)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "X (acquired, all-stock)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "SpaceX", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 }, { "id": "xAI (acquired, all-stock)", "type": "Other", "parent": null, "outflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "inflow_low_usd_bn": 0.0, "total_volume_low_usd_bn": 0.0 } ], "links": [ { "id": "F01", "relationship_id": "NVDA-OPENAI", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 100.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 100.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "LOI_Up_To", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-09-22", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nvidia press release + TechCrunch; later reporting: never signed", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F02" ], "notes": "Ceiling for 10 GW progressive deployment, first GW H2 2026. NOT funded cash. Do not add to F02." }, { "id": "F02", "relationship_id": "NVDA-OPENAI-2026", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 30.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 30.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-02-27", "closed": "2026-03-31", "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary reporting of OpenAI round (ForkLog etc.); primary release not verified in research run", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F01" ], "notes": "Part of $110bn announced / $122bn closed round at $730bn pre / $852bn post." }, { "id": "F03", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-2026-ROUND", "source": "SoftBank + Nvidia + Amazon (syndicate)", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 110.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 122.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-02-27", "closed": "2026-03-31", "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "OpenAI announcement via secondary reporting", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F02", "F05", "F06" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE round total. Exclude when summing investor rows." }, { "id": "F04", "relationship_id": "SOFTBANK-OPENAI-2026", "source": "SoftBank", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 30.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 30.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-02-27", "closed": "2026-10-01", "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary reporting; SoftBank final tranche 1 Oct 2026, cumulative $64.6bn reported", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Component of F03." }, { "id": "F05", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-OPENAI-2026", "source": "Amazon", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 15.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 15.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-02-27", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2028, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F03" ], "notes": "Immediate tranche of Amazon up-to-$50bn commitment." }, { "id": "F06", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-OPENAI-2026-CONT", "source": "Amazon", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 35.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 35.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Contingent", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2026-02-27", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2028, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F03" ], "notes": "Milestone / IPO-contingent (IPO by 31 Dec 2028 in reporting). Not funded." }, { "id": "F07", "relationship_id": "MSFT-OPENAI", "source": "Microsoft", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash_Credits", "amount_low_usd_bn": 13.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 13.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2019-07-01", "closed": "2023-01-01", "start_year": 2019, "end_year": 2023, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Microsoft filings / 10-Q summaries; $13bn vs $13.75bn discrepancy flagged in research", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "$1bn 2019 + ~$10bn Jan 2023 + balance. Much delivered as Azure credits per DCD summary." }, { "id": "F08", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-AZURE", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "Microsoft Azure", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 250.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 250.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-28", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Oct 2025 recap reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "OpenAI spend TO Microsoft, not Microsoft investment. Exclusivity / ROFR removed at recap. Microsoft ~27% diluted, ~$135bn value at recap (separate valuation, not a flow)." }, { "id": "F09", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-2025-ROUND", "source": "SoftBank-led syndicate", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 40.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 40.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-31", "closed": "2025-12-31", "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "OpenAI announcement ($40bn at $300bn post) corroborated by Bloomberg/Decrypt", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F10" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE. Exclude when summing investor rows." }, { "id": "F10", "relationship_id": "SOFTBANK-OPENAI-2025", "source": "SoftBank", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 30.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 30.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-03-31", "closed": "2025-12-31", "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary reporting of $40bn round split", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F09" ], "notes": "Component of F09; tranches $7.5bn + $22.5bn." }, { "id": "F11", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-SECONDARY-2025", "source": "Thrive / SoftBank / Dragoneer / MGX / T. Rowe Price", "target": "OpenAI employees (secondary sellers)", "category": "Secondary_Sale", "amount_low_usd_bn": 6.6, "amount_high_usd_bn": 6.6, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-08-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Valuation marker at $500bn. Pays employees, NOT company funding for compute. Exclude from OpenAI inflow." }, { "id": "F12", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-ORACLE", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "Oracle", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 300.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 300.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-09-10", "closed": null, "start_year": 2027, "end_year": 2032, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 60.0, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 60.0, "source_basis": "WSJ 10 Sep 2025 via DCD; not company-confirmed in full", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "4.5 GW, from 2027. Earlier Jul 2025 report ~$30bn/yr from 2028 is a successive report, not a second contract." }, { "id": "F13", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-AWS", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "Amazon Web Services", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 38.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 38.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Announced", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-11-03", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2032, "duration_years": 7.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 5.429, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 5.429, "source_basis": "OpenAI/AWS announcement via PYMNTS / MIT Sloan", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs; all targeted capacity by end-2026, expansion 2027+." }, { "id": "F14", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-COREWEAVE-1", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 11.9, "amount_high_usd_bn": 11.9, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters CoreWeave factbox 15 Oct 2026", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F17" ], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F15", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-COREWEAVE-2", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 4.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 4.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-05-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F17" ], "notes": "To 2029." }, { "id": "F16", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-COREWEAVE-3", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 6.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 6.5, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F17" ], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F17", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-COREWEAVE-TOTAL", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 22.4, "amount_high_usd_bn": 22.4, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox (sum of F14-F16)", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F14", "F15", "F16" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE. Exclude when summing F14-F16." }, { "id": "F18", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-OPENAI-STOCK", "source": "CoreWeave", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Stock", "amount_low_usd_bn": 0.35, "amount_high_usd_bn": 0.35, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Stock issuance as part of Mar 2025 deal; aligns customer as shareholder." }, { "id": "F19", "relationship_id": "AMD-OPENAI-WARRANT", "source": "AMD", "target": "OpenAI", "category": "Equity_Stock_Warrant", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": 160.0, "quantity_unit": "million shares at $0.01", "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-10-06", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "AMD press release / SEC filing 6 Oct 2025", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Vests on 6 GW deployment + share-price milestones to Oct 2030; ~10% if fully vested. No cash at signing; no shares vested at 27 Jun 2026 per filing reporting." }, { "id": "F20", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-AMD-GPU", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "AMD", "category": "Purchase_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": 6.0, "quantity_unit": "GW Instinct", "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-10-06", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "AMD filing", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "First 1 GW MI450 H2 2026. No dollar total announced." }, { "id": "F21", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-BROADCOM", "source": "OpenAI / Broadcom", "target": "Each other", "category": "Co_Development", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": 10.0, "quantity_unit": "GW custom accelerators", "status": "Announced", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-06", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Announcement reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "No agreed dollar total announced; per-GW analyst estimates are NOT contract values." }, { "id": "F22", "relationship_id": "STARGATE-PROGRAMME", "source": "SoftBank / OpenAI / Oracle / MGX (Stargate JV)", "target": "Stargate data centres (US)", "category": "JV_Capex_Programme", "amount_low_usd_bn": 500.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 500.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Announced_Programme", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-01-21", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": 4.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 125.0, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 125.0, "source_basis": "Stargate announcement 21 Jan 2025 via DCD", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "PROGRAMME total, not cash in hand. $100bn 'immediately' in announcement. ~7 GW / >$400bn in projects by Sep 2025 per OpenAI." }, { "id": "F23", "relationship_id": "SOFTBANK-STARGATE", "source": "SoftBank", "target": "Stargate JV", "category": "JV_Equity", "amount_low_usd_bn": 19.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 19.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2025-01-21", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Early-2025 reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Early JV structure; since absorbed into OpenAI infrastructure programme." }, { "id": "F24", "relationship_id": "OPENAI-STARGATE", "source": "OpenAI", "target": "Stargate JV", "category": "JV_Equity", "amount_low_usd_bn": 19.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 19.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2025-01-21", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Early-2025 reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "As F23." }, { "id": "F25", "relationship_id": "ORACLE-MGX-STARGATE", "source": "Oracle / MGX", "target": "Stargate JV", "category": "JV_Equity", "amount_low_usd_bn": 7.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 7.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2025-01-21", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Early-2025 reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Combined Oracle + MGX figure in early reporting." }, { "id": "F26", "relationship_id": "ORACLE-BONDS", "source": "Bond investors", "target": "Oracle", "category": "Debt_Bonds", "amount_low_usd_bn": 18.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 18.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Oracle bond issue reporting; Jan 2026 bondholder suit alleges non-disclosure (allegation, not finding)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Senior bonds Sep 2025." }, { "id": "F27", "relationship_id": "BANKS-VANTAGE", "source": "Bank group (JPMorgan, MUFG et al.)", "target": "Vantage Data Centers (for Oracle lease)", "category": "Debt_Project_Loan", "amount_low_usd_bn": 38.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 38.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Arranged_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "DCD / Octus reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Loans for Texas + Wisconsin campuses Oracle will lease for OpenAI capacity. Debt sits with developer SPV; economic exposure is Oracle's rent." }, { "id": "F28", "relationship_id": "JPMORGAN-ABILENE", "source": "JPMorgan", "target": "Abilene Stargate site (Crusoe)", "category": "Debt_Project_Loan", "amount_low_usd_bn": 9.6, "amount_high_usd_bn": 9.6, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-01-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Research report row 10 (2 loans incl. $7.1bn phase-2)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "1.2 GW campus, 8 buildings." }, { "id": "F29", "relationship_id": "CRUSOE-BLUEOWL-ABILENE", "source": "Crusoe / Blue Owl", "target": "Abilene Stargate site", "category": "Equity_Project", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-01-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Research report row 10", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Cash equity alongside F28." }, { "id": "F30", "relationship_id": "ORACLE-NVIDIA-GPU", "source": "Oracle", "target": "Nvidia", "category": "Purchase_Commitment_GPU", "amount_low_usd_bn": 40.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 40.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": 400000.0, "quantity_unit": "GB200 chips", "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-06-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "FT via DCD", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "For Abilene/Stargate, 15-year lease to OpenAI; delivery phased to mid-2026." }, { "id": "F31", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-ANTHROPIC-2023", "source": "Amazon", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 4.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 4.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2023-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2023, "end_year": 2023, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Amazon/Anthropic announcements; Nasdaq summaries", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Up to $4bn Sep 2023 (initial $1.25bn + $2.75bn Mar 2024 in library report - same $4bn commitment, do not add)." }, { "id": "F32", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-ANTHROPIC-2024", "source": "Amazon", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 4.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 4.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2024-11-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2024, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Amazon announcement Nov 2024", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Brings widely reported total to $8bn. Minority, no board seat (2024 terms)." }, { "id": "F33", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-ANTHROPIC-2026", "source": "Amazon", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-04-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Anthropic Apr 2026 announcement via Reuters S-1 coverage", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Further immediate investment; notes converted to non-voting preferred Q1 2026; Amazon booked $16.8bn pre-tax gain Q1 2026 on conversion (secondary filing summaries)." }, { "id": "F34", "relationship_id": "AMAZON-ANTHROPIC-FUTURE", "source": "Amazon", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 20.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 20.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Contingent", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-04-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters S-1 coverage 26 Oct 2026", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Up to $20bn more agreed, milestone-based. Reuters: Amazon invested at least $13bn (= $8bn + $5bn) + up to $20bn more." }, { "id": "F35", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-AWS", "source": "Anthropic", "target": "Amazon Web Services", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 110.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 110.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2026-04-20", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2036, "duration_years": 10.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 11.0, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 11.0, "source_basis": "Reuters S-1 coverage 26 Oct 2026; Reuters 20 Apr 2026", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "At least $110bn to Apr 2036; up to 5 GW Trainium; Project Rainier ~500k Trainium2. Longest Anthropic large contract." }, { "id": "F36", "relationship_id": "GOOGLE-ANTHROPIC-2023A", "source": "Google", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 0.3, "amount_high_usd_bn": 0.3, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2023-02-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2023, "end_year": 2023, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Court filings / NYT via summaries; ~10% at the time", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F37", "relationship_id": "GOOGLE-ANTHROPIC-2023B", "source": "Google", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2023-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2023, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Court filings; $500m upfront + $1.5bn over time; $750m convertible due Sep 2025 per filings", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F38", "relationship_id": "GOOGLE-ANTHROPIC-2025", "source": "Google", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 1.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 1.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-01-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reporting; takes pre-2026 total to >$3bn, ~14% stake capped 15%, no votes/board", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F39", "relationship_id": "GOOGLE-ANTHROPIC-2026A", "source": "Google", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 10.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 10.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-04-24", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Apr 2026 reporting (Slashdot/CNBC summary); Reuters S-1 confirms up-to-$40bn commitment", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Initial tranche at ~$350bn valuation per secondary reporting." }, { "id": "F40", "relationship_id": "GOOGLE-ANTHROPIC-2026B", "source": "Google", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 30.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 30.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Contingent", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-04-24", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Apr 2026 reporting; Reuters S-1 confirms up-to-$40bn", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Milestone-contingent remainder of up-to-$40bn (F39+F40)." }, { "id": "F41", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-GOOGLE", "source": "Anthropic", "target": "Google Cloud", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 114.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 114.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": 1000000.0, "quantity_unit": "TPUs (up to)", "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-10-23", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2033, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters S-1 coverage; Oct 2025 TPU announcement (AP)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "At least $114.5bn to 2033 in S-1. Oct 2025 deal: up to 1m TPUs, >1 GW online 2026, 'tens of billions' - part of this total, not additional. First phase ~400k Ironwood racks ~$10bn via Broadcom per SemiAnalysis (supplier order, not a second Google investment)." }, { "id": "F42", "relationship_id": "MSFT-ANTHROPIC", "source": "Microsoft", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-11-18", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Joint announcement reporting 18 Nov 2025", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Ceiling; part-funded in Series G per Feb 2026 announcement reporting. Drawn amount not confirmed." }, { "id": "F43", "relationship_id": "NVDA-ANTHROPIC", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 10.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 10.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-11-18", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Joint announcement reporting 18 Nov 2025", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Ceiling; part-funded in Series G. Also reported $10bn anchor interest in Anthropic IPO - unverified, not included as a flow." }, { "id": "F44", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-AZURE", "source": "Anthropic", "target": "Microsoft Azure", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 44.9, "amount_high_usd_bn": 44.9, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-11-18", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2033, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters S-1 coverage (Nov 2026-May 2033)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Announced as $30bn Azure Nov 2025 + up to 1 GW Nvidia-powered capacity; S-1 figure $44.9bn is the updated total, not $30bn + $44.9bn." }, { "id": "F45", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-SERIES-E", "source": "Lightspeed-led syndicate", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Anthropic announcement; $61.5bn valuation", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "AGGREGATE round. Investor splits not broken out here." }, { "id": "F46", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-SERIES-F", "source": "ICONIQ-led syndicate", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 13.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 13.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-02", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Anthropic/GIC announcement; $183bn post", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "AGGREGATE round." }, { "id": "F47", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-SERIES-G", "source": "GIC / Coatue-led syndicate", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 30.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 30.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-02-12", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Anthropic Series G reporting; $380bn valuation", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F42", "F43" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE round. Includes a portion of F42/F43 - do not sum G with the full MSFT/NVDA ceilings." }, { "id": "F48", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-SERIES-H", "source": "Altimeter / Dragoneer / Greenoaks / Sequoia-led syndicate", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 65.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 65.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2026-05-28", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters Oct 2026 factbox / Crunchbase via secondary coverage", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "AGGREGATE. RE-TIE to Anthropic's own announcement before valuation use. Secondary S-1 analysis: headline overstates fresh cash (includes previously committed cloud money, e.g. $15bn in H)." }, { "id": "F49", "relationship_id": "BANKS-ANTHROPIC-REVOLVER", "source": "Morgan Stanley / Barclays / Citi / Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan", "target": "Anthropic", "category": "Debt_Revolver", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility_Available", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-05-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Anthropic reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Revolving credit facility, not equity. Drawn amount not stated." }, { "id": "F50", "relationship_id": "ANTHROPIC-COREWEAVE", "source": "Anthropic", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Announced", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2026-04-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox (terms undisclosed)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Multiyear agreement Apr 2026. NO dollar figure assigned - blank is intentional, not zero." }, { "id": "F51", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-IPO", "source": "Public investors", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 1.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 1.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-03-28", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "IPO reporting; $40/share, 37.5m shares, ~$23bn valuation (downsized from $47-55)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Nvidia $250m IPO anchor order is part of this raise, not additional (see library report)." }, { "id": "F52", "relationship_id": "NVDA-COREWEAVE-2026", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2026-01-26", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "TechCrunch 26 Jan 2026; $87.20/share", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "To accelerate >5 GW build-out by 2030." }, { "id": "F53", "relationship_id": "NVDA-COREWEAVE-BACKSTOP", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Capacity_Backstop", "amount_low_usd_bn": 6.3, "amount_high_usd_bn": 6.3, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Contract_Contingent", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2032, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Nvidia buys unsold capacity through 13 Apr 2032. Backstop, NOT a GPU repurchase and NOT a debt guarantee (CEO Oct 2026). Pays only on capacity CoreWeave fails to sell elsewhere." }, { "id": "F54", "relationship_id": "META-COREWEAVE", "source": "Meta", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 21.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 21.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2032, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox; DCD", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Originally $14.2bn to Dec 2031 (Sep 2025), expanded Apr 2026 to ~$21bn to Dec 2032. $21bn is the updated total, not $14.2bn + $21bn." }, { "id": "F55", "relationship_id": "MSFT-COREWEAVE", "source": "Microsoft", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-01-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "CoreWeave filings via Reuters factbox", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "No single contract total stated. 62% of 2024 revenue, 67% of 2025 revenue - concentration, not a dollar flow. Blank is intentional." }, { "id": "F56", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2023", "source": "Lenders (private credit)", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Facility", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.3, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.3, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2023-08-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2023, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "Delayed-draw in stages." }, { "id": "F57", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2024", "source": "Blackstone / Magnetar-led lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Private_Credit", "amount_low_usd_bn": 7.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 7.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2024-05-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox; library: >$7bn May 2024", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "One of largest private debt raises of its kind at the time." }, { "id": "F58", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2025-07", "source": "Lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_DDTL", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.6, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.6, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-07-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "Delayed-draw term loan." }, { "id": "F59", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2026-03", "source": "Blackstone Credit & Insurance-anchored lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_DDTL_Investment_Grade", "amount_low_usd_bn": 8.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 8.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Company claim via AInvest; Moody's A3 / DBRS A", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "First investment-grade GPU/HPC financing per company; backed by Meta contract + Nvidia chips." }, { "id": "F60", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2026-05", "source": "Lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Facility", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.1, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.1, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-05-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F61", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-2026-08", "source": "Lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Facility", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.6, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.6, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-08-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F62", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-CONVERTS", "source": "Bond investors", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-04-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder (Apr 2026 converts)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "Apr 2026 converts only." }, { "id": "F62b", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-CONVERTS-SEP", "source": "Bond investors", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.7, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.7, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder (Sep 2026 converts)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "Sep 2026 converts." }, { "id": "F62c", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-REVOLVER", "source": "Lenders", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Revolver", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Facility_Available", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-11-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox ladder: $650m Oct 2024 -> $1.5bn May 2025 -> $2.5bn Nov 2025 (to Nov 2029)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F63" ], "notes": "Facility size, not cash drawn. Earlier revolver sizes are superseded by the $2.5bn figure, not additional." }, { "id": "F63", "relationship_id": "COREWEAVE-DEBT-TOTAL", "source": "Lenders / bondholders (all)", "target": "CoreWeave", "category": "Debt_Total", "amount_low_usd_bn": 50.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 50.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported_Total", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reuters factbox Oct 2026: ~$50bn total debt; $35bn balance-sheet debt at 30 Jun 2026, $50-52bn incl. leases", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F56", "F57", "F58", "F59", "F60", "F61", "F62", "F62b", "F62c" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE total debt. Exclude when summing facility rows. Backlog ~$104bn contracted revenue (separate, not a flow). CDS ~1,000bp Oct 2026 (market-implied, not a default)." }, { "id": "F64", "relationship_id": "NEBIUS-2024-ROUND", "source": "Accel / Nvidia / Orbis", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 0.7, "amount_high_usd_bn": 0.7, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2024-12-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2024, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "DCD; Nvidia share within round not disclosed", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F65", "relationship_id": "NEBIUS-CONVERTS-2025-06", "source": "Public investors", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Debt_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 1.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 1.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-06-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2029, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "DCD; due 2029/2031 tranches, Goldman sole placement agent", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "" }, { "id": "F66", "relationship_id": "NEBIUS-2025-09-EQUITY", "source": "Public investors", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 1.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 1.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nebius reporting; $92.50/share", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F68" ], "notes": "Component of Sep 2025 ~$4.2bn raise." }, { "id": "F67", "relationship_id": "NEBIUS-2025-09-CONVERTS", "source": "Public investors", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Debt_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.16, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.16, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2032, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nebius reporting: $1.375bn 1.00% due 2030 + $1.375bn 2.75% due 2032 (plus balance to $3.16bn in reporting)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F68" ], "notes": "Component of F68. Convertible announcements in different weeks must be checked against 6-Ks before summing (double-count risk flagged in library report)." }, { "id": "F68", "relationship_id": "NEBIUS-2025-09-TOTAL", "source": "Public investors", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Equity_And_Convertible", "amount_low_usd_bn": 4.2, "amount_high_usd_bn": 4.2, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nebius reporting", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F66", "F67" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE Sep 2025 raise. Exclude when summing F66+F67." }, { "id": "F69", "relationship_id": "MSFT-NEBIUS", "source": "Microsoft", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 17.4, "amount_high_usd_bn": 19.4, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed_Conditional", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-08", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2031, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nebius Form 6-K 8 Sep 2025 (primary)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Vineland, NJ, 5-yr tranches 2025-2026. Conditional on deployment/availability; per-tranche termination for late delivery; Microsoft obligations only once Nebius confirms capex financing. 'Take-or-pay' characterisation is secondary/disputed - 6-K does not use that phrase." }, { "id": "F70", "relationship_id": "META-NEBIUS-2025", "source": "Meta", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 3.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 3.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-11-11", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 0.6, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 0.6, "source_basis": "Dow Jones via Morningstar 11 Nov 2025", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Capacity-capped, 5 years." }, { "id": "F71", "relationship_id": "META-NEBIUS-2026-FIRM", "source": "Meta", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "amount_low_usd_bn": 12.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 12.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Committed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-03-13", "closed": null, "start_year": 2027, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Motley Fool analysis of filings, Mar 2026", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Firm dedicated Vera Rubin capacity from early 2027. Firm total with Microsoft ~$32bn in that analysis." }, { "id": "F72", "relationship_id": "META-NEBIUS-2026-BACKSTOP", "source": "Meta", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Capacity_Backstop", "amount_low_usd_bn": 15.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 15.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Contract_Contingent", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-03-13", "closed": null, "start_year": 2027, "end_year": null, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Motley Fool analysis of filings, Mar 2026", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Up to $15bn unsold-capacity backstop; pays only on capacity Nebius fails to sell elsewhere. F71+F72 = up to $27bn Mar 2026 expansion (not $3bn + $27bn)." }, { "id": "F73", "relationship_id": "NVDA-NEBIUS", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "Nebius", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-03-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Multiple secondary sources; primary filing not verified in research run", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "~8.3%, >5 GW joint deployment by 2030. Medium confidence." }, { "id": "F74", "relationship_id": "XAI-SERIES-B", "source": "Valor / Vy / a16z / Sequoia / Fidelity / Kingdom Holding et al.", "target": "xAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 6.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 6.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2024-05-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2024, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary timelines; $24bn post", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "AGGREGATE round." }, { "id": "F75", "relationship_id": "XAI-SERIES-C", "source": "Nvidia / AMD / MGX / QIA / BlackRock / Fidelity / Sequoia / Valor et al.", "target": "xAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 6.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 6.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2024-12-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2024, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Secondary timelines; $45-50bn valuation", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "AGGREGATE round. Nvidia/AMD as strategic investors = supplier + holder circularity." }, { "id": "F76", "relationship_id": "XAI-2025-DEBT", "source": "Morgan Stanley-arranged lenders", "target": "xAI", "category": "Debt_Notes_Loans", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-07-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Morgan Stanley reporting; $3bn 12.5% secured notes + $2bn term loans due 2030", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Part of Jul 2025 $10bn package." }, { "id": "F77", "relationship_id": "XAI-2025-EQUITY", "source": "Strategic investors (incl. SpaceX $2bn)", "target": "xAI", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-07-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reporting; SpaceX $2bn is a component, not additional", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Part of Jul 2025 $10bn package (F76+F77)." }, { "id": "F78", "relationship_id": "XAI-SPV-TOTAL", "source": "Valor / Apollo / Diameter / Nvidia et al. (via SPV)", "target": "xAI (via SPV lease)", "category": "SPV_Financing", "amount_low_usd_bn": 20.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 20.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed_Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-01", "closed": "2026-01-01", "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 4.0, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 4.0, "source_basis": "Bloomberg via PitchBook Oct 2025; xAI Jan 2026 confirmed $20bn total without debt/equity split", "is_aggregate": true, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F79", "F80", "F81" ], "notes": "AGGREGATE SPV total. SPV buys Nvidia processors and leases them to xAI for 5 years (Colossus 2, Memphis). Exclude when summing F79-F81." }, { "id": "F79", "relationship_id": "XAI-SPV-EQUITY", "source": "Valor-led equity investors", "target": "xAI SPV", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 7.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 7.5, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 1.5, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 1.5, "source_basis": "Bloomberg via PitchBook", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F78" ], "notes": "Component of F78. Includes Nvidia's reported up-to-$2bn (F81, memo split only)." }, { "id": "F80", "relationship_id": "XAI-SPV-DEBT", "source": "Apollo / Diameter et al.", "target": "xAI SPV", "category": "Debt_SPV", "amount_low_usd_bn": 12.5, "amount_high_usd_bn": 12.5, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 2.5, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 2.5, "source_basis": "Bloomberg via PitchBook", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F78" ], "notes": "Up to $12.5bn debt component of F78; GPU-collateralised." }, { "id": "F81", "relationship_id": "NVDA-XAI-SPV", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "xAI SPV", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 2.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 2.0, "is_up_to": true, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2025-10-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2030, "duration_years": 5.0, "annualized_low_usd_bn": 0.4, "annualized_high_usd_bn": 0.4, "source_basis": "Bloomberg via PitchBook; Nvidia share NOT confirmed by xAI Jan 2026 announcement", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": true, "do_not_sum_with": [ "F78", "F79" ], "notes": "MEMO SPLIT: reported up-to-$2bn WITHIN F79 equity ($7.5bn). Do not add to F79 or to any sum that already includes F79." }, { "id": "F82", "relationship_id": "XAI-X-MERGER", "source": "xAI", "target": "X (acquired, all-stock)", "category": "Stock_Merger", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Closed", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2025-03-28", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Announcement reporting; xAI $80bn / X $33bn ($45bn incl. $12bn X debt)", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "VALUATION, not cash flow. Amount columns blank intentionally." }, { "id": "F83", "relationship_id": "SPACEX-XAI-MERGER", "source": "SpaceX", "target": "xAI (acquired, all-stock)", "category": "Stock_Merger", "amount_low_usd_bn": null, "amount_high_usd_bn": null, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Reported", "confidence": "Low", "announced": "2026-02-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Reported Feb 2026; $250bn xAI valuation in reporting", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "VALUATION, not cash flow. Musk-empire consolidation." }, { "id": "F84", "relationship_id": "NVDA-INTEL", "source": "Nvidia", "target": "Intel", "category": "Equity_Cash", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Announced", "confidence": "High", "announced": "2025-09-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "Nvidia announcement Sep 2025", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Chip-side only; joint data-centre/PC development; no lab compute commitment." }, { "id": "F85", "relationship_id": "BLACKSTONE-GOOGLE-JV", "source": "Blackstone", "target": "Blackstone-Google JV (compute-as-a-service)", "category": "JV_Equity", "amount_low_usd_bn": 5.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 5.0, "is_up_to": false, "quantity_value": null, "quantity_unit": null, "status": "Announced", "confidence": "Medium", "announced": "2026-01-01", "closed": null, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2027, "duration_years": null, "annualized_low_usd_bn": null, "annualized_high_usd_bn": null, "source_basis": "PitchBook", "is_aggregate": false, "is_component": false, "do_not_sum_with": [], "notes": "Initial equity; first 500 MW online 2027, Google TPUs." } ], "capex": [ { "company": "Amazon", "year": 2025, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "amount_low_usd_bn": 125.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 131.8, "status": "Actual", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Cash capex net of sales/incentives; guided ~$125bn at Q3 2025, $131.8bn full-year in later compilations. Majority AWS/AI." }, { "company": "Amazon", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 220.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 220.0, "status": "Guidance", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Raised from ~$200bn early 2026 to ~$220bn at Q2 2026 earnings per research compilations." }, { "company": "Alphabet (Google)", "year": 2025, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "amount_low_usd_bn": 91.4, "amount_high_usd_bn": 91.4, "status": "Actual", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Purchases of property & equipment; $91-93bn guided." }, { "company": "Alphabet (Google)", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 195.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 205.0, "status": "Guidance", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Feb 2026 $175-185bn -> $180-190bn -> $195-205bn Jul 2026; Q2 capex $44.9bn. 'Significant increase again in 2027' signalled." }, { "company": "Microsoft", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 115.9, "amount_high_usd_bn": 115.9, "status": "Actual (FY2026)", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Fiscal year ends June. FY2025 ~$88bn cash / ~$95bn incl. leases; calendar 2025 ~$118bn in reconstructions. 2026 guidance ~$175bn after lease-accounting change (~$190bn before, plans unchanged, ~$15bn moved to operating leases)." }, { "company": "Meta", "year": 2025, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "amount_low_usd_bn": 72.2, "amount_high_usd_bn": 72.2, "status": "Actual", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "$70-72bn guided; $69.7bn cash capex in one compilation." }, { "company": "Meta", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 130.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 145.0, "status": "Guidance", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Jan 2026 $115-135bn -> Apr $125-145bn -> Oct $130-145bn / $135-145bn; Q3 capex $34.91bn." }, { "company": "Oracle", "year": 2025, "start_year": 2024, "end_year": 2025, "amount_low_usd_bn": 21.2, "amount_high_usd_bn": 21.2, "status": "Actual (FY2025)", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "Smallest hyperscaler balance sheet, largest leverage swing in this map." }, { "company": "Oracle", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 55.7, "amount_high_usd_bn": 55.7, "status": "Actual (FY2026)", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": false, "notes": "~$70bn guided FY2027 per secondary compilations." }, { "company": "Big-four combined (Amazon+Alphabet+Microsoft+Meta)", "year": 2025, "start_year": 2025, "end_year": 2025, "amount_low_usd_bn": 410.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 410.0, "status": "Aggregate actual", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": true, "notes": "AGGREGATE - calendar, mixed definitions. Do not sum with company rows." }, { "company": "Big-four combined (Amazon+Alphabet+Microsoft+Meta)", "year": 2026, "start_year": 2026, "end_year": 2026, "amount_low_usd_bn": 720.0, "amount_high_usd_bn": 745.0, "status": "Aggregate guidance", "confidence": "Medium", "is_aggregate": true, "notes": "AGGREGATE - midpoint ~$733bn, +~79% YoY in latest Oct 2026 trackers. Earlier 2026 estimates ($550-650bn) superseded by successive raises." } ], "filters": { "categories": [ "Capacity_Backstop", "Co_Development", "Compute_Spend_Commitment", "Debt_Bonds", "Debt_Convertible", "Debt_DDTL", "Debt_DDTL_Investment_Grade", "Debt_Facility", "Debt_Notes_Loans", "Debt_Private_Credit", "Debt_Project_Loan", "Debt_Revolver", "Debt_SPV", "Debt_Total", "Equity_And_Convertible", "Equity_Cash", "Equity_Cash_Credits", "Equity_Convertible", "Equity_Project", "Equity_Stock", "Equity_Stock_Warrant", "JV_Capex_Programme", "JV_Equity", "Purchase_Commitment", "Purchase_Commitment_GPU", "SPV_Financing", "Secondary_Sale", "Stock_Merger" ], "statuses": [ "Announced", "Announced_Programme", "Arranged_Reported", "Closed", "Closed_Reported", "Committed", "Committed_Conditional", "Contingent", "Contract_Contingent", "Facility", "Facility_Available", "LOI_Up_To", "Reported", "Reported_Total" ], "confidences": [ "High", "Medium", "Low" ], "types": [ "Chip", "Hyperscaler", "Investor", "Lab", "Lender", "Neocloud", "Other" ], "year_min": 2019, "year_max": 2027 } }